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Meta is redeploying engineers as training data. OpenAI just hired the one engineer who can't be replaced. Same week, opposite bets on where the moat lives.

Meta turned engineers into labelers; OpenAI hired the man whose 2017 paper runs every model both companies build. Those bets don't end in the same place.

Mistral sells European AI independence; Anthropic owns the daily workflow of the people doing the selling. Those positions don't compound the same way.

Anthropic repriced the developer subsidy to chase Fortune 10 contracts. Cline open-sourced the exit the same day. Two bets that don't end in the same place.

Frontier models are producing offensive exploits and dissolving startup moats simultaneously. The two bets don't end in the same place.