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Chinese labs have the models; the US holds the compute licenses. Kimi K3 hit #10 on OpenRouter, then sold out. That gap decides the next few years.

Domestic labs are building the moat from policy. Chinese labs are building it from the math. Those don't end in the same place.

Coinbase has agents compounding in production. Google can't trust its own model with internal code. Those two positions don't end in the same place.

Anthropic doubles down on headcount; Moonshot ships open weights at frontier price. One bet assumes the moat holds. The other assumes it's already gone.

Anthropic is capturing the margin layer; xAI is giving the runtime away. Both bets assume judgment scales — they disagree on who owns it.