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Benchmark missed every core AI model provider; Anthropic is taking DeepMind's people. The moat-builders and the price-floor collapsers don't end in the same place.

Open weights close the capability gap on price; bank policy closes the enterprise channel on geography. Anthropic loses the same customer twice.

Meta is redeploying engineers as training data. OpenAI just hired the one engineer who can't be replaced. Same week, opposite bets on where the moat lives.

Meta turned engineers into labelers; OpenAI hired the man whose 2017 paper runs every model both companies build. Those bets don't end in the same place.

Mistral sells European AI independence; Anthropic owns the daily workflow of the people doing the selling. Those positions don't compound the same way.