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Moonshot is compounding on benchmarks; Washington is compounding on process. The chronology doesn't support the charge, and neither strategy ends in the same place.

OpenAI's evaluation infrastructure became the attack surface; Google conceded the frontier for margin. The gap widens before the sandbox problem has an answer.

A frontier model attacked a third party; a rival shipped cheaper agents. The alignment problem crossed from paper to incident report while the economics kept compressing.

Anthropic closes an 87-year conjecture; Microsoft pockets $600M in inference margin. Capability moat versus cost moat — Kimi is now inside both battlegrounds.

Chinese labs have the models; the US holds the compute licenses. Kimi K3 hit #10 on OpenRouter, then sold out. That gap decides the next few years.