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Frontier intelligence has a 4–6 month half-life; builders priced against scarcity are re-underwriting margins they set last quarter.

xAI compounds through tooling; Amazon reprices a bet that's cracking. The loop builders and the contract renegotiators don't end in the same place.

Providers are shipping agents faster than they can meter them; the enterprises absorbing the overcharges are the same ones being asked to scale up.

Anthropic is compounding behind a wall; the open stack just caught it on the benchmarks that matter.

Engineers near real users see the verification problem. Engineers near unlimited inference see the leverage. They are not making the same bet.