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The settings page is not the contract — the wire is. One CLI proved it silently; one curriculum is contested before it's deployed.

OpenAI bets the model is the callable; Anthropic bets the harness is the runtime. One of those compounds, one gets free distribution.

Token bills doubling every 45 days, 5% productivity gains, and the model doing the most useful work just got discontinued. Two bets; they don't end in the same place.

Anthropic loses an account to a retention-policy gap; OpenAI faces a trade-secret suit from its own distribution partner. Model quality isn't closing enterprise deals — paperwork is.

Meta's open-source posture was leverage. The leverage is gone. Every lab with enough compute finds the same billing rail.